Wednesday, September 10, 2008

The pro off-shore drilling crowd sure is naïve. Do they actually believe that gasoline prices will immediately fall if the ban on off-shore drilling is lifted? They apparently do. Consider home page text of www.drillheredrillnow.com:

"As gas prices continue to increase, Congress continues to blame others while ignoring practical steps to stop the pain Americans are feeling at the pump. To lower gasoline prices and reduce our dependence on foreign oil, we need real solutions to our energy challenges.

We, therefore, are petitioning the U.S. Congress to act immediately to lower gasoline prices (and diesel and other fuel prices) by authorizing the exploration of proven energy reserves to reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources from unstable countries."

That quote from Newt Gingrich sounds great during a contentious election year, but is it possible, let alone believable? Once drilling is allowed and I predict it will be, it’ll take a least a decade before the first drop of crude makes its way to a pipeline. It's not like someone can shoot at the ground and out spurts oil.

Second, with only three percent of the world’s proven reserves, a lot of oil needs to pump through U.S. spigots to make an impact on pricing. And, more importantly, oil companies will make us pay just as much for domestic crude as the imported Middle Eastern stuff.

Really. A domestic discount? Don’t bet on it.

While we are in a protracted economic slump (notice I did not say recession) that has dampened oil market speculators, Newt doesn’t seem to realize that a “practical” step has already delivered some recent relief at the pump: conservation. People are using their cars less and that is contributing to less pain at the pump.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree that authorization for drilling will not influence prices in the short term. Beyond that, both sides of this argument are flawed.

What problem we are trying to solve? Are we looking to reduce our dependence on foreign oil? Are we looking to reduce prices? The two are not necessarily related and the case for the former is more logical than the latter.

If we are striving for independence, it would follow that, we should use every tool in our arsenal. Reduce demand. Increase supply.

If you squint, apply supply/demand, and factor in tariffs, you might see some downward pressure on prices in the long-term. As you have pointed out, doing nothing might affect them as well. It is naïve to assume that we know what would happen. Even the experts have had a hard time figuring out why prices are elevated. Decreasing prices is a weak case for drilling.

The argument that it would take 10 years is equally flawed. If congress immediately gave the green light, who is qualified to say how long it would take to see an impact? The oil companies might redeploy existing assets, or purchase/lease new equipment from elsewhere. Perhaps new oil is available in as little as 1 year, or as many as 15. It all depends on their business case. It is naïve to assume intimate knowledge of the oil drilling business. The case for offshore drilling is sound as a strategic hedge, not as a short-term remedy.

Anonymous said...

God strike me dead for saying this but gas should be $7 a gallon with $3 going towards alternative energy research and encouragements. Perhaps a a tax credit (20 cents/mile?) for people or busineses who drive over 100 miles/week. The only time in the past 30 years that consumption declined was when gasoline was hitting $4.50/gallon in June/July.

Glenn